8 Predictions For October 2023's Box Office


8 Predictions For October 2023’s Box Office

The October 2023 box office has Taylor Swift: The Era Tour, Martin Scorsese’s Killers of the Flower Moon, and more movies competing for the top spot.


  • The Exorcist: Believer is projected to have a strong opening weekend, aiming to make $30 million domestically, benefiting from the popularity of horror films and nostalgia.
  • Killers of the Flower Moon could challenge to break box office records for Martin Scorsese by opening above $41 million or making $140 million domestically overall.
  • Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour is poised to dominate the box office in October 2023, with expectations of opening above $100 million and the potential to make over $300 million domestically alone, potentially challenging Barbie as the biggest opening of the year.



The October 2023 box office only has a few major new releases, and here are some predictions for how much each new movie will make. October is always a pivotal time for theaters that oftentimes cater to a very specific audience. While there are plenty of regular releases that come during the month, the loom of Halloween brings spookier and scarier movies to theaters as studios hope to profit from audiences being in the horror movie mood. This does not mean that bigger non-horror movies have not found success, as comic book movies especially have had big launches in October.

There are no superhero movies on the horizon in October 2023, which leaves the box office open for the taking. Four out of the last five years have seen a superhero movie be the highest-grossing release in October. The lack of one thanks to Kraven the Hunter‘s delay leaves the return of an iconic horror franchise, a new Martin Scorsese movie, a video game adaptation, and Taylor Swift in position to battle for the top spot this month. Some of the September 2023 movies will also linger and find success, especially with Saw X serving as a lead-in to horror movie season. Here are some key predictions for the October 2023 box office

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8 The Exorcist: Believer Box Office Prediction

The biggest franchise installment coming in October 2023 hoping to dominate the box office is The Exorcist: Believer. The long-awaited true sequel to the original The Exorcist comes 50 years after Ellen Burstyn last played Chris MacNeil. That movie made over $400 million worldwide, so expectations are understandably high for the franchise revival in 2023. The Exorcist: Believer is hoping to continue a strong run of success for horror movies at the box office this year, and tracking (via Deadline) indicates that it could open to $30 million domestically once it arrives in theaters on October 6, 2023.

The expected $30M opening weekend for The Exorcist: Believer would be a great start for the franchise. It would technically break the franchise record, although The Exorcist‘s opening weekend box office was not officially tracked. If The Exorcist: Believer‘s box office gets off to this solid start, the movie should wind up becoming a success if good reviews and word of mouth come. There is certainly nostalgia attached to the movie, and Universal’s trilogy plans mean they can’t afford for it to flop. It might not come close to the original’s $193M domestically, but The Exorcist: Believer could manage to make over $100M in the states alone.

7 Foe Box Office Prediction

Paul Mescal and Saoirse Ronan Sharing an Intimate Moment in Foe

Foe is not expected to find much of an audience at the box office, unfortunately. The new movie from Garth Davis (Lion) starring Paul Mescal and Saoirse Ronan is only projected to make between $2M-$6M in its opening weekend according to Box Office Pro. This would result in the movie making less than $20 million domestically throughout its entire theatrical run most likely. While Davis’ Lion was a box office success and both Mescal and Ronan are notable rising stars, Foe‘s box office prospects are not all that promising right now.

6 Killers of the Flower Moon Box Office Prediction

Lily Gladstone embraces into Leonardo DiCaprio in Killers of the Flower Moon

Martin Scorsese’s highly-anticipated movie Killers of the Flower Moon is on track to be a worthwhile theatrical release for Apple TV+. It’s been a decade since one of Martin Scorsese’s movies hit at the box office, as The Wolf of Wall Street became his highest-grossing movie in 2013. He has found plenty of success before then, especially through the movies that star Leonardo DiCaprio, as Killers of the Flower Moon does. DiCaprio is the star of Scorsese’s five biggest box office hits, and there is optimism that Killers of the Flower Moon will add a sixth collaboration to that success.

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Killers of the Flower Moon‘s box office tracking is set at $24 million for its opening weekend according to Deadline. This is lower than the estimated $27M-$36M range from Box Office Pro. It would not be surprising if the latter proves to be more accurate if Killers of the Flower Moon‘s reviews continue to rave about Scorsese’s latest. If everything goes better than expected, breaking the director’s opening weekend record of Shutter Island‘s $41M could be in the cards. That is why a $140M domestic total is possible, which would also be a record for the legendary director.

5 Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour Box Office Prediction

Taylor Swift belting out a song in front of orange and red fog on the Eras Tour.

Taylor Swift is poised to dominate the box office in October 2023 thanks to the debut of Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour. The live concert movie that documents the star’s current record-breaking concert tour has become an expected box office juggernaut. This is thanks to Swifties and anyone else eager to experience the Eras Tour in theaters making Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour perform like the biggest blockbusters in terms of presales tickets. The result is mounting expectations that Taylor Swift’s dominance of pop culture will now translate to box office success.

After announcing a global rollout for the movie, Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour‘s box office projections remain sky high. The movie is guaranteed to open above $100 million, with the low end of these projections looking to be around $125M compared to a high of over $160M. This could mean challenging Barbie to be 2023’s biggest opening weekend. This type of performance would likely mean that Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour could make over $300 million domestically alone and then potentially a few hundred million more overseas.

4 Five Nights at Freddy’s Box Office Prediction

Freddy, Bonnie, Chica, and Foxy on a Five Nights At Freddy's movie poster

The potential for Five Nights at Freddy’s box office is trickier to examine. The video game movie adaptation is coming to theaters in late October 2023, but Universal is simultaneously releasing it on Peacock. This gives audiences the option to see the movie in theaters or on a streaming service from the first day of release, which could hurt its box office. There is no official box office tracking yet for Five Nights at Freddy’s either, but a mid-$20M opening weekend would likely be a huge win for the movie. Thanks to the success of the video games, Five Nights at Freddy’s making over $100 million worldwide is doable.

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3 Oppenheimer Will Make $1 Billion At The Box Office

Cillian Murphy as Oppenheimer celebrating

One riskier box office prediction for October 2023 is that Oppenheimer will cross the $1 billion milestone. Christopher Nolan’s movie has made over $930 million worldwide at this point, leaving it with roughly another $70M to make to surpass this mark. This will be no easy task considering how long it has already been in theaters. But with Oppenheimer‘s streaming release date still nowhere in sight, the movie sustaining an audience at the box office could happen long enough to cross $1 billion.

2 The Equalizer 3 Becomes The Franchise’s Highest-Grossing Movie

An image of Denzel Washington looking serious in The Equalizer 3

Looking at the September 2023 movies that will remain in theaters during October, The Equalizer 3‘s box office could continue to succeed. This should see Denzel Washington’s movie become the highest-grossing entry in the franchise. After already making more than $150M worldwide in its first month of release, The Equalizer 3 only needs to surpass $192M to break the franchise record set by the original movie. This should be a realistic milestone to pass considering Denzel’s trilogy capper is the best-reviewed action movie in theaters.

1 Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour Will Be October 2023’s Biggest New Movie At The Box Office

Taylor Swift points out into the audience while singing.

Based on the movies that are being released this month, October 2023’s box office will belong to Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour. The movie will easily be the biggest new release at the box office this month. It is likely to earn twice or three times as much as any other new movie. There might not be any massive blockbusters that Taylor Swift’s movie has to compete with, but the overall performance of Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour is still likely to rival the biggest movies of 2023.

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